Ryan Byrd

Are Home Prices Falling in 2026? What Case-Shiller, NAR, Redfin and Zillow Say (They Don’t Agree)

Are home prices falling in 2026? Nationally, not yet. Case-Shiller shows prices up 1.9% in July, and NAR’s median price rose 1.3% in September. But after inflation, home values have fallen for 14 straight months, and a few metros, including Denver and Seattle, are already seeing declines.

What Do the Major Reports Say About Home Prices Right Now?

They agree on direction but not on size. Every national measure below shows small year-over-year gains, and the smallest gains in months. Real Estate News compared three trackers in one week and found ATTOM down 2%, Redfin up 0.2% and Zillow up 1.2% year over year, each using its own method.

Source	Measure	Latest reading	Change vs. last year
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller (July)	U.S. National Index	Index, July 2026	+1.9%
Case-Shiller (July)	20-City Composite	Index, July 2026	+2.5%
NAR (September)	Median existing-home price	$417,500	+1.3% (39th straight monthly gain)
Redfin (September)	Median sale price	$393,895	+1.3%, smallest gain since February
Zillow (September)	Typical home value	$366,913	+1% (down 0.5% from August)
Realtor.com (week ending Oct. 17)	Median listing price	$415,000	-2.1%

Sources: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller July 2026 release, NAR’s September existing-home sales report, Redfin, Zillow’s September 2026 Market Report and WRE News for the Realtor.com figure. Median prices can swing with the mix of homes that happen to sell, while Case-Shiller tracks price changes on the same homes over time. That is one reason the numbers differ.

Are Home Prices Falling After Inflation?

Yes, by most measures. According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller July 2026 release, home values fell in real terms for the 14th straight month. July inflation of 3.4% ran about 1.5 percentage points above the 1.9% national home price gain. S&P’s Rebecca Kaufman said home prices “continued to decline in real terms in July 2026.”

In plain terms, a home that gained 1.9% in price lost buying power if your costs rose 3.4%. That matters most for sellers who bought recently and need to cover closing costs and repairs. Our guide to the tax bill many sellers now face shows how gains can still be taxed.

Refer and Earn: Know a homeowner worried about their home value? Our Refer and Earn program pays you $500 once the sale closes, with no fees and no limit. If their sale closes with us, you earn. Refer a homeowner.

Which Cities Are Seeing Home Prices Fall?

A handful of western metros are already negative, while the Northeast and Midwest lead. The two lists below come from Case-Shiller (July) and Redfin (September):

Measure	Biggest gains	Biggest declines
Case-Shiller, July	Chicago +6.9%, New York +5.8%, Cleveland +4.2%	Seattle -1.6%, Las Vegas -1.3%, Denver -1.1%
Redfin median sale price, September	San Francisco +14.6%, Cleveland +7.9%, St. Louis +6.7%	Seattle -4.4%, San Jose -3.4%, Denver -2.6%

Denver shows up in both lists. If you own in Colorado, read why Colorado insurance premiums doubled, Colorado’s 57% foreclosure jump and why owners there are choosing cash sales. See our Colorado, New York and Ohio pages.

NAR’s September regional medians show the same split: Northeast $523,600 (+4.7%), Midwest $329,600 (+3.1%), South $361,000 (+0.2%) and West $613,600 (-0.3%).

Why Aren’t Home Prices Falling Faster?

Few distressed sales. NAR says distressed sales were 2% of September sales. NAR’s Lawrence Yun said the “limited number of distressed properties is ensuring steady home prices.” Completed foreclosures rose 42% in August, but ATTOM’s CEO said overall volumes remain well below historical norms. See what happens after foreclosure.
Owners are reluctant to sell at a loss. Compass analyst Mike Simonsen said, “Homeowners are really hesitant to sell at a loss if they don’t have to,” per Real Estate News.
Locked-in rates. Realtor.com found 65.6% of mortgages carry a rate of 5% or lower, per the same report. Those owners have little reason to sell.
Thin new supply. Zillow says new listings sit 11.9% below the pre-pandemic baseline.

What Could Push Prices Lower?

Several pressures are building. Zillow reports price cuts on 27.4% of listings in September, up from 26.2% a year earlier, and says inventory has risen year over year for 34 straight months. Redfin found 60.5% of homes sold below the original asking price and that sellers outnumbered buyers by about 63%, as covered in 1 in 5 Sellers Just Cut Their Price.

Redfin’s head of economic research, Chen Zhao, said slow sales mean prices may flatten or fall in the not-so-distant future. Record-low contracts feed that risk. We break down the contract slump in Pending Home Sales Just Hit an All-Time Low.

What Should Sellers Do If Prices Soften?

Price to closed sales in your ZIP code. National averages will not tell you what your street will bring.
Compare your real net. Subtract commissions, repairs, concessions and months of carrying costs.
Check for state-specific costs. See our guides on Arizona, Massachusetts and New Jersey.
Get a cash offer as a benchmark. It shows your fast-sale floor.
Do not wait on a rate drop alone. Zillow says rates could fall quickly, but nobody can time it.

With Byrd and Co, a cash sale typically works like this: you contact us, we review the home as-is, you get a no-obligation cash offer, and we can close in as little as one to two weeks. See how a cash offer works, selling with liens or code violations, selling a rental with tenants and what falling flip profits say about the market. Inherited a home? Read how to sell an inherited house and what to do when siblings disagree.

Refer and Earn: Do you have a friend or family member holding a house they cannot sell at today’s prices? Our Refer and Earn program pays you $500 once the sale closes, with no fees and no limit. We make a cash offer within 24 hours. Refer a homeowner.

Wondering if home prices are falling where you live? Talk to the Byrd and Co team, no pressure, just real answers. Get your no-obligation cash offer and compare it with what the market is offering.

Frequently Asked Questions About Home Prices in 2026

Are home prices falling in 2026?

Not nationally. Case-Shiller shows a 1.9% annual gain for July, and NAR’s median price rose 1.3% in September. After inflation, though, home values have fallen for 14 straight months.

Which cities have falling home prices?

Case-Shiller’s July data shows declines in Seattle (-1.6%), Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-1.1%). Redfin’s September data shows median sale price drops in Seattle, San Jose and Denver.

Will home prices crash in 2026?

No major tracker in this post shows a national crash. Zillow expects sales to stay below last year’s level through the fourth quarter, and Redfin’s economist says prices may flatten or fall, so conditions could soften.

Why do Zillow, Redfin and Case-Shiller show different prices?

They measure different things. Some track median sale prices, which change with the mix of homes sold, while Case-Shiller tracks repeat price changes on the same homes.

Is now a good time to sell my house?

It depends on your timeline and local market. Sales are slow and rates are above 7%, but prices are steady, so many sellers compare a cash offer with listing at a sharper price.