Ryan Byrd

Pending Home Sales Just Hit an All-Time Low: What the 66.0 Reading Means If You Need to Sell

Pending home sales hit an all-time low in September 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors. Its index fell 7.3% to 66.0, down 11.3% from a year ago. Fewer signed contracts means fewer closings ahead, so sellers should price sharply or compare a cash offer.

What Do Record-Low Pending Home Sales Mean?

Pending home sales count homes with a signed contract that have not closed yet. They signal how many closings are coming in the next month or two. NAR’s index dropped to 66.0, the lowest reading in the index’s history, per HousingWire. Reuters reports that economists had expected only a 0.5% decline.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates.” August had still edged up 0.3%, so the September drop came fast. Our guide to 7.40% mortgage rates explains how the rate jump hit buyers.

Region (NAR)	September index	Change vs. Sept. 2025	Byrd and Co states
West	49.3 (down 9.2% from August)	-15.0%	AZ, CO
Northeast	59.0 (down 4.2% from August)	-9.4%	CT, MA, NJ, NY, PA
Midwest	67.3	-8.7%	IN, OH
South	79.2	-12.0%	DE, MD, VA, KY, TN, FL

Source: HousingWire. Contracts fell in all four regions. We grouped our states by the Census regions NAR uses. A few markets held up better. Nashville fell just 2.0% and Hartford fell 2.1% from a year ago, the two smallest declines among the metros HousingWire listed. See our Tennessee and Connecticut pages.

Why Did Pending Home Sales Fall So Fast?

Mortgage rates are the main reason. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 15, up from 6.27% a year earlier. On October 22 it eased to 7.32%, the first weekly decline since August, per Real Estate News.

Mortgage applications: the Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchase index was down 18% from a year earlier for the week ending October 16. MBA economist Joel Kan said, “It is very clear that the higher mortgage rate environment has cooled the housing market this fall.”
Zillow: newly pending sales fell 8.5% from a year earlier and 11.2% from August, per Zillow’s September 2026 Market Report.
Redfin: pending sales dropped 4% in September to their lowest level since spring 2014, excluding April 2020, per Redfin.
Weekly tracker: WRE News cites HousingWire data showing 52,490 homes went under contract in the week ending October 23, about 22.5% fewer than a year earlier.

We covered the buyer side of this slowdown in It’s Officially a Buyer’s Market and the cancellation spike in A Record 14.5% of Home Deals Are Falling Through.

Refer and Earn: Know a homeowner stuck on the market with no offers? Our Refer and Earn program pays you $500 once the sale closes, with no fees and no limit. If their sale closes with us, you earn. Refer a homeowner.

What Does This Week’s Fed Meeting Mean for Sellers?

The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28. According to Real Estate News, CME FedWatch gave about a 95% chance that the Fed holds rates this week and nearly 75% odds of a hike in December. Those odds can change, so check the Fed’s announcement for the actual decision.

Yun offered a hopeful note: “Given that mortgage rates have already risen much more than the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate hikes, mortgage rates could be topping out.” Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher said, “We expect sales to remain lower than last year through the fourth quarter,” and Zillow notes rates could fall quickly and bring buyers and sellers back. Read what the last move meant in The Fed Just Raised Rates for the First Time Since 2023.

Should You Sell Now or Wait for Rates to Fall?

Prices are holding steady for now, so waiting is not a clear win. Yun said the “limited number of distressed properties is ensuring steady home prices.” Compass analyst Mike Simonsen added, “Homeowners are really hesitant to sell at a loss if they don’t have to,” per Real Estate News. Realtor.com’s Anthony Smith said, “The damage to the fall housing market is already done.”

Choice	Best when	Watch out for
Wait for lower rates	You can carry the home and have no deadline	Rates may not fall soon, and carrying costs keep running
List with an agent and price sharply	Your home is in good shape and you have time	Longer time on market and possible price cuts; see why houses are not selling
Offer a rate buydown	Buyers like the home but struggle with the payment	Costs you cash at closing
Sell for cash, as-is	You need speed, certainty or no repairs	Compare offers and ask how each number is calculated

On buydowns, Mortgage Porter ran an example for a home just under $900,000. A $25,000 seller credit used for a rate buydown cut the monthly payment by a couple hundred dollars more than a $50,000 price reduction would. That is one commentator’s example, so ask your lender to run your own numbers.

How Can Sellers Get Under Contract Faster in a Slow Market?

Price to sold homes. Use recent closed sales, not other sellers’ asking prices.
Fix the top inspection risks first. Problems found late are a common reason buyers back out.
Offer flexible terms. A buydown, closing-cost help or a flexible move-out date can widen your buyer pool.
Line up a fallback. A cash offer shows your floor before you cut the price again.
Watch the data. Check Freddie Mac on Thursdays and your local pending counts monthly.

With Byrd and Co, a cash sale typically works like this: you contact us, we review the home as-is, you get a no-obligation cash offer, and we can close in as little as one to two weeks. Read what a cash offer is, see why 1 in 4 home sales skip the mortgage, and review our services.

Behind on payments while the market is slow? ATTOM’s August 2026 foreclosure report counted 5,794 completed foreclosures in August, up 42%. Our guides cover what happens after foreclosure, selling a house in foreclosure and foreclosure prevention. In Colorado, start with the 110-day timeline.

Selling in a state with extra costs? See our guides to New Jersey’s mansion tax, Connecticut’s conveyance tax and Tennessee’s capital gains rules.

Refer and Earn: Do you know a neighbor, coworker or relative who needs to sell before year end? Our Refer and Earn program pays you $500 once the sale closes, with no fees and no limit. We make a cash offer within 24 hours. Refer a homeowner.

Watching pending home sales and wondering what to do with your house? Talk to the Byrd and Co team, no pressure, just real answers. Get your no-obligation cash offer and decide with real numbers.

Frequently Asked Questions About Pending Home Sales

What are pending home sales?

Pending home sales are homes with a signed purchase contract that have not closed yet. NAR’s index tracks them as a signal of closings to come.

How low are pending home sales in 2026?

NAR’s September 2026 index fell 7.3% to 66.0, the lowest reading in the index’s history. It was down 11.3% from a year earlier.

Why are pending home sales falling?

Higher mortgage rates are the main cause. NAR’s Lawrence Yun said market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates, and the 30-year rate averaged 7.40% in mid-October, per Freddie Mac.

Will pending home sales recover in 2026?

Forecasters are cautious. Zillow expects sales to stay below last year’s levels through the fourth quarter, though it says falling rates could bring buyers back quickly.

Is now a bad time to sell my house?

It is a slower market, but prices are holding steady for now, according to NAR. Sellers who need speed or certainty often compare a cash offer with listing at a sharper price.