Nearly 1 in 3 Homeowners Now Face a Tax Bill When They Sell — And Congress Is Taking Notice
Roughly 34% of U.S. homeowners now have enough home equity to exceed the $250,000/$500,000 capital gains tax exclusion if they sell, according to research from the National Association of REALTORS®, and that share is projected to climb to 56% by 2030. Several bills are now moving through Congress that would raise or eliminate that exclusion, but as of today, none of them have passed — the current $250,000/$500,000 limits, unchanged since 1997, are still the law.
Table of Contents
- What Are the Current Home Sale Tax Rules?
- Why Is This Suddenly a Hot Topic in 2026?
- What Is the “Lock-In Effect,” and Why Does NAR Care?
- What Bills Are Actually in Congress Right Now?
- Has Anything Actually Passed?
- What Should You Do If You’re Planning to Sell?
- FAQ
What Are the Current Home Sale Tax Rules?
Under Section 121 of the tax code, homeowners who sell their primary residence can currently exclude up to $250,000 of gain from taxable income if they’re single, or up to $500,000 if married filing jointly, as long as they meet the IRS’s ownership and use tests. Gain above that amount is generally taxed at long-term capital gains rates of 0%, 15%, or 20%, depending on income, plus a possible additional 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax for higher earners.
These exact numbers, and the fact that they’re the current law, are confirmed directly in IRS Topic no. 701, Sale of Your Home.
Why Is This Suddenly a Hot Topic in 2026?
The $250,000/$500,000 limits were set in 1997 and have never been adjusted for inflation, even as median home prices have nearly tripled since then. According to NAR, that fixed cap means a growing share of ordinary homeowners, not just wealthy investors, are running into a tax bill simply because their home’s value has appreciated over years of ownership.
President Trump has publicly floated eliminating the tax entirely, telling reporters in the Oval Office, “We are thinking about no tax on capital gains on houses.” That comment, combined with active bills in the House, has pushed the issue further into the mainstream housing conversation than it’s been in years.
What Is the “Lock-In Effect,” and Why Does NAR Care?
NAR’s research shows that 34% of current homeowners already face potential capital gains taxes if they sell today — a number NAR projects could climb to 56% by 2030 and nearly 70% by 2035. NAR Chief Advocacy Officer Shannon McGahn has called this a “critical juncture,” warning that the outdated thresholds are no longer just a concern for owners of higher-end properties.
The concern isn’t just about the tax bill itself. It’s about what economists call the “lock-in effect”: long-time homeowners, especially retirees who’ve owned for decades, choosing to stay put rather than sell and trigger a large taxable gain. NAR argues this keeps needed housing inventory off the market at a time when supply is already tight.
What Bills Are Actually in Congress Right Now?
Two main proposals are currently in committee:
- The More Homes on the Market Act, introduced by Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), would double the exclusion to $500,000 for single filers and $1 million for married couples, and index it to inflation going forward so it doesn’t freeze again.
- The No Tax on Home Sales Act, introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), would eliminate the federal capital gains tax on primary residence sales entirely.
Both bills have drawn some bipartisan interest, and NAR has publicly backed both as ways to address the same underlying problem from different angles.
Has Anything Actually Passed?
No. As of today, both bills remain in committee, and no change to the home sale capital gains exclusion has become law. Tax policy experts have also noted that meaningful tax legislation is considered unlikely to move quickly ahead of the midterm elections, given the tight legislative calendar.
This is worth stating plainly because headlines about “no tax on home sales” have circulated for over a year now without any actual change to the rules. If you sell your home today, the $250,000/$500,000 exclusion under current law is what applies to your taxes, not a repealed or expanded version that hasn’t been enacted.
What Should You Do If You’re Planning to Sell?
Waiting to sell in the hope that Congress passes a more favorable rule is a real gamble; there’s no guarantee either bill becomes law, or when. A few things are worth keeping in mind if you’re weighing a sale:
- Most sellers already fall under the current exclusion. NAR’s own data shows roughly two-thirds of today’s homeowners wouldn’t owe any capital gains tax under the existing $250,000/$500,000 rule.
- If you’re close to or over the threshold, your accountant can run the actual number using your cost basis, including qualifying home improvements, rather than just your sale price.
- Inherited homes generally get a stepped-up basis, which often resets the clock on what counts as “gain” and may make this whole conversation moot for an inherited property.
- A pending bill isn’t current law. Financial and timing decisions should be based on what’s actually in effect today, not a proposal that may or may not pass.
Trying to Decide Whether Now Is the Right Time to Sell?
Byrd and Co buys houses as-is across Maryland, Delaware, New York, Virginia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Kentucky, and Tennessee. We can walk through your specific numbers and timeline with you, no obligation either way.
Get Your Cash Offer → | Call (443) 251-3479
Frequently Asked Questions About Capital Gains Reform
Has Congress eliminated capital gains tax on home sales? No. As of today, the current $250,000/$500,000 exclusion under Section 121 remains the law. Two bills that would change this are in committee, but neither has passed.
Why do people keep saying “no tax on home sales” is coming? President Trump has publicly said he’s considering the idea, and two bills addressing it are active in Congress, which has generated significant media coverage. That attention doesn’t mean the change has happened yet.
How many homeowners actually face a capital gains tax bill today? NAR estimates roughly 34% of current homeowners have enough gain to exceed the existing exclusion if they sell, a figure it projects could grow to 56% by 2030 and nearly 70% by 2035 if the thresholds stay frozen.
What’s the difference between the two bills in Congress? The More Homes on the Market Act would double the exclusion and index it to inflation going forward. The No Tax on Home Sales Act would eliminate the capital gains tax on primary home sales entirely. Both remain in committee.
Should I wait to sell until one of these bills passes? That’s a personal financial decision, but it carries real risk since there’s no guarantee either bill becomes law or when. Most sellers already fall under the current exclusion and wouldn’t benefit from waiting regardless.
This article provides general information and is not tax or legal advice. Tax situations vary, and pending legislation can change. For guidance specific to your sale, consult a licensed CPA or tax attorney.